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NoNo
nigiri99CTR<$100YesNoYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Austin FC vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to Score
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 40%
Total Value
$859.22
Combined PnL
$138.66
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$859.22
Total Shares859
Combined PnL+$511.23
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares516
Combined PnL-$372.57
No — 50%Yes — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 34.4¢ | $245.26 | $555.51 | +$310.25 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 34.1¢ | $75.01 | $219.94 | +$144.93 | 49% 1800-1902 (3702) |
nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 69.1¢ | $33.85 | — | -$34.79 | 46% 8770-10464 (19234) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 33.1¢ | $27.72 | $83.77 | +$56.05 | 50% 1850-1866 (3716) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 69.8¢ | $338.5 | — | -$337.78 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $400 | — | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
FL
FlaznorpInvested
$245.26
Value
$555.51
PnL
+$310.25
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
LI
LightParadoxInvested
$75.01
Value
$219.94
PnL
+$144.93
Record
49%
1800-1902 (3702)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$33.85
Value
—
PnL
-$34.79
Record
46%
8770-10464 (19234)
LI
Limousin<$100Invested
$27.72
Value
$83.77
PnL
+$56.05
Record
50%
1850-1866 (3716)
38
38791873984189CTRInvested
$338.5
Value
—
PnL
-$337.78
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTRInvested
$400
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x4ce2d4e4...41a72c
Slug
mls-aus-por-2026-11-07-btts