Will Toronto FC win on 2026-11-01?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 1

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$514.33

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 99.5¢

+12% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares7,973

Combined PnL+$512.49

Yes5 traders

Total Value$116.93

Total Shares2,360

Combined PnL+$1.84

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 89.2¢	$4.1K	$4.5K	+$474.36	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.3¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$62.99	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 96.8¢	$368.33	$348.94	-$19.39	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 67¢	$344.21	$346.87	+$2.66	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
fyrsken	Noavg 69¢	$275.99	$269.99	-$6	49% 290-305 (595)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 95.2¢	$142.69	$142.09	-$0.6	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$71.41	$70.45	-$0.97	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$30.6	$33.15	+$2.55	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 92¢	$31.28	$27.41	-$3.87	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 82.2¢	$23.81	$25.05	+$1.24	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 91.2¢	$11.49	$12.58	+$1.09	66% 23472-11826 (35298)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$10.27	$10.48	+$0.21	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.42	-$0.03	52% 7507-6801 (14308)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.42	+$0.07	58% 18786-13851 (32637)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$4,063.76

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$474.36

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,888.93

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$62.99

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$368.33

Value

$348.94

PnL

-$19.39

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$344.21

Value

$346.87

PnL

+$2.66

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

fyrsken

Invested

$275.99

Value

$269.99

PnL

-$6

Record

49%

290-305 (595)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$142.69

Value

$142.09

PnL

-$0.6

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.41

Value

$70.45

PnL

-$0.97

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.6

Value

$33.15

PnL

+$2.55

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$31.28

Value

$27.41

PnL

-$3.87

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$23.81

Value

$25.05

PnL

+$1.24

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$11.49

Value

$12.58

PnL

+$1.09

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.27

Value

$10.48

PnL

+$0.21

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

18786-13851 (32637)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.