Mistral matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 77¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.3K
$567.95
85.9¢ → 76.6¢
-11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 86.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.8K | +$239.7 | 53% 1116-998 (2114) |
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 84¢ | $336.84 | $392.45 | +$61.95 | 49% 1819-1894 (3713) |
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $6.44 | $126.24 | +$119.79 | 74% 2716-975 (3691) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 87.2¢ | $422 | $16.52 | -$2.65 | 73% 2908-1060 (3968) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.7¢ | $73.81 | $4.53 | +$149.16 | 36% 15157-27275 (42432) |
Invested
$1,551.59
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$239.7
Record
53%
1116-998 (2114)
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$336.84
Value
$392.45
PnL
+$61.95
Record
49%
1819-1894 (3713)
viniiCTRInvested
$6.44
Value
$126.24
PnL
+$119.79
Record
74%
2716-975 (3691)
Tenebrus7Invested
$422
Value
$16.52
PnL
-$2.65
Record
73%
2908-1060 (3968)
Invested
$73.81
Value
$4.53
PnL
+$149.16
Record
36%
15157-27275 (42432)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.