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CoinTrick<$100No
balthazar<$100NoYesYes
2B9SCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) <44%?
Resolved No. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
5
No 100%
Total Value
$20
Combined PnL
$0.02
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$20
Total Shares20
Combined PnL+$0.02
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
No — 40%Yes — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CoinTrick<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20 | $20 | +$0.02 | 98% 3115-75 (3190) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20735-13149 (33884) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4342-9343 (13685) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14903-27014 (41917) |
2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 3782-17083 (20865) |
CoinTrick<$100Invested
$20
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.02
Record
98%
3115-75 (3190)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20735-13149 (33884)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4342-9343 (13685)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14903-27014 (41917)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
3782-17083 (20865)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x31ac2bb0...6a7c06
Slug
microsoft-msft-q1-azure-revenue-growth-constant-currency-20261008120057000-less-than-44