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CoinTrickNoYes
balthazar<$100NoNoYes
IstarothCTR<$100YesYes
2B9S<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Microsoft (MSFT) Q1 Azure revenue growth (constant currency) 46% to 48%?
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 50%
Total Value
$100
Combined PnL
-$12.83
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$100
Total Shares100
Combined PnL+$1.95
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares211
Combined PnL-$14.78
No — 50%Yes — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CoinTrick | Noavg 99¢ | $99 | $100 | +$1.95 | 98% 3115-75 (3190) |
SB sbimbgCTR | Yesavg 55¢ | $14.78 | — | -$14.78 | 70% 3133-1349 (4482) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20735-13149 (33884) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 7697-7703 (15400) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4342-9343 (13685) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 58.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 25% 283-842 (1125) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14903-27014 (41917) |
2B9S<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 3782-17083 (20865) |
CoinTrickInvested
$99
Value
$100
PnL
+$1.95
Record
98%
3115-75 (3190)
SB
sbimbgCTRInvested
$14.78
Value
—
PnL
-$14.78
Record
70%
3133-1349 (4482)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20735-13149 (33884)
RL
RLWG<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7697-7703 (15400)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4342-9343 (13685)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
283-842 (1125)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14903-27014 (41917)
2B9S<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
3782-17083 (20865)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x225aba92...adfa94
Slug
microsoft-msft-q1-azure-revenue-growth-constant-currency-20261008120057000-46-to-48