Will Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 87.5% and 90%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 60¢ · $161 held · ends Dec 23
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$161
$124.37
Research grade
NeutralYes at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $72.9 | $75.6 | +$2.7 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
 IstarothCTR | Noavg 92¢ | $101.24 | $57.72 | -$8 | 24% 285-919 (1204) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $79.99 | $19.19 | +$129.13 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $7.22 | $7.71 | +$0.49 | 32% 4355-9375 (13730) |
74 0x7495...7fcf<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $0.23 | $0.28 | +$0.05 | — |
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$72.9
Value
$75.6
PnL
+$2.7
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
IstarothCTRInvested
$101.24
Value
$57.72
PnL
-$8
Record
24%
285-919 (1204)
Invested
$79.99
Value
$19.19
PnL
+$129.13
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
Invested
$7.22
Value
$7.71
PnL
+$0.49
Record
32%
4355-9375 (13730)
Invested
$0.23
Value
$0.28
PnL
+$0.05
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.