Michigan Senate favorite on November 2?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold El-Sayed (80%) · El-Sayed at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
El-Sayed
5
El-Sayed 80%
$2.3K
$291.74
84.5¢ → 95.3¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralEl-Sayed at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
282h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on El-Sayed. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | El-Sayedavg 76.4¢ | $838.35 | $1.0K | +$206.69 | 74% 2724-977 (3701) |
 Istaroth | El-Sayedavg 94.7¢ | $746.97 | $748.43 | +$4.48 | 20% 308-1212 (1520) |
 KimchiCapital | El-Sayedavg 85.6¢ | $344.99 | $384.76 | +$31.31 | 76% 527-163 (690) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | El-Sayedavg 93.2¢ | $96.74 | $98.24 | +$1.5 | 56% 15296-11843 (27139) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Rogersavg 12¢ | $34.56 | $7.32 | +$47.76 | 36% 15393-27456 (42849) |
viniiInvested
$838.35
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$206.69
Record
74%
2724-977 (3701)
IstarothInvested
$746.97
Value
$748.43
PnL
+$4.48
Record
20%
308-1212 (1520)
KimchiCapitalInvested
$344.99
Value
$384.76
PnL
+$31.31
Record
76%
527-163 (690)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$96.74
Value
$98.24
PnL
+$1.5
Record
56%
15296-11843 (27139)
Invested
$34.56
Value
$7.32
PnL
+$47.76
Record
36%
15393-27456 (42849)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.