Piratas Veracruz vs. Club Atletico La Paz: O/U 2.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 55¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 67%
$3.4K
$203.69
61.1¢ → 55¢
-10% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 57.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$314.51 | 57% 4077-3095 (7172) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 66.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$168.92 | 55% 1589-1278 (2867) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 40.6¢ | $731.89 | $414.27 | -$317.61 | 38% 167-273 (440) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $40.75 | $60.5 | +$19.75 | 51% 1945-1901 (3846) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $17.42 | $29.81 | +$12.39 | 32% 424-920 (1344) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $11.28 | $19.73 | +$8.45 | 31% 423-938 (1361) |
SU suntori<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $14.38 | $15.82 | +$1.44 | — |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $5.65 | $3.1 | -$2.56 | — |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $3 | $1.4 | -$1.6 | 39% 407-633 (1040) |
RN1Invested
$1,267.91
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$314.51
Record
57%
4077-3095 (7172)
Invested
$1,093.19
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$168.92
Record
55%
1589-1278 (2867)
Invested
$731.89
Value
$414.27
PnL
-$317.61
Record
38%
167-273 (440)
Invested
$40.75
Value
$60.5
PnL
+$19.75
Record
51%
1945-1901 (3846)
Invested
$17.42
Value
$29.81
PnL
+$12.39
Record
32%
424-920 (1344)
Invested
$11.28
Value
$19.73
PnL
+$8.45
Record
31%
423-938 (1361)
Invested
$14.38
Value
$15.82
PnL
+$1.44
Record
—
Invested
$5.65
Value
$3.1
PnL
-$2.56
Record
—
Invested
$3
Value
$1.4
PnL
-$1.6
Record
39%
407-633 (1040)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.