Piratas Veracruz vs. Club Atletico La Paz: O/U 0.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$305.52

Smart Money Entry

89.9¢ → 99.6¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,299

Combined PnL-$101.96

Under5 traders

Total Value$43.46

Total Shares2,331

Combined PnL-$203.56

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 89¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$108.64	57% 4077-3095 (7172)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 90.5¢	$536.3	$527.46	-$8.84	46% 311-361 (672)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 94.1¢	$228.68	$229.79	+$1.1	51% 1945-1901 (3846)
└ Over leg	Overavg 94.1¢	$165.66	$143.55	-$22.11
└ Under leg	Underavg 13.5¢	$63.02	$86.24	+$23.22
RO Rocky31	Overavg 94.5¢	$173.33	$183.24	+$9.91	27% 43-118 (161)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 91¢	$37.11	$40.78	+$3.67	—
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$6.82	$24.55	+$17.73	32% 424-920 (1344)
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 95¢	$19	$19.99	+$0.99	78% 711-201 (912)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 11¢	$233.97	$9.55	-$224.42	55% 1589-1278 (2867)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 95¢	$5.23	$6.18	+$0.95	39% 407-633 (1040)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$1	$3.6	+$2.6	—
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 13.1¢	$4.23	$3.56	-$0.66	38% 167-273 (440)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$1	$2.2	+$1.2	31% 423-941 (1364)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,302.95

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$108.64

Record

57%

4077-3095 (7172)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$536.3

Value

$527.46

PnL

-$8.84

Record

46%

311-361 (672)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$228.68

Value

$229.79

PnL

+$1.1

Record

51%

1945-1901 (3846)

Both legs:

Over$165.6694.1¢-$22.11

Under$63.0213.5¢+$23.22

Rocky31

Over

Invested

$173.33

Value

$183.24

PnL

+$9.91

Record

27%

43-118 (161)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$37.11

Value

$40.78

PnL

+$3.67

Record

—

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.82

Value

$24.55

PnL

+$17.73

Record

32%

424-920 (1344)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$19

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.99

Record

78%

711-201 (912)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$233.97

Value

$9.55

PnL

-$224.42

Record

55%

1589-1278 (2867)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$5.23

Value

$6.18

PnL

+$0.95

Record

39%

407-633 (1040)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$2.6

Record

—

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.23

Value

$3.56

PnL

-$0.66

Record

38%

167-273 (440)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$1.2

Record

31%

423-941 (1364)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.