Spread: Piratas Veracruz (-3.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Club Atletico La Paz (40%) · Club Atletico La Paz at 95¢ · $640 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Club Atletico La Paz
5
Club Atletico La Paz 40%
$640.09
-$0
95¢ → 95¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralClub Atletico La Paz at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Club Atletico La Paz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Club Atletico La Pazavg 95¢ | $547.77 | $547.77 | +$0 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Club Atletico La Pazavg 95¢ | $73.75 | $73.75 | -$0 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Piratas Veracruzavg 5¢ | $14.83 | $14.83 | +$0 | 30% 375-875 (1250) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Piratas Veracruzavg 5¢ | $3.14 | $3.14 | -$0 | 37% 346-578 (924) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Piratas Veracruzavg 5¢ | $0.6 | $0.6 | +$0 | 45% 263-319 (582) |
Invested
$547.77
Value
$547.77
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$73.75
Value
$73.75
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
Invested
$14.83
Value
$14.83
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
375-875 (1250)
Invested
$3.14
Value
$3.14
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
346-578 (924)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.6
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
263-319 (582)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.