Spread: Piratas Veracruz (-1.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Club Atletico La Paz (38%) · Club Atletico La Paz at 67¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Piratas Veracruz34¢Club Atletico La Paz66¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Club Atletico La Paz

Consensus Traders

Club Atletico La Paz 38%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$36.76

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 66.5¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralClub Atletico La Paz at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Club Atletico La Paz

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Piratas Veracruz34%

Club Atletico La Paz67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Club Atletico La Paz3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,891

Combined PnL-$35.45

Piratas Veracruz5 traders

Total Value$983.43

Total Shares2,896

Combined PnL+$72.21

Club Atletico La Paz — 38%Piratas Veracruz — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Club Atletico La Paz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPiratas Veracruz 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Piratas Veracruz 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Club Atletico La Pazavg 69.1¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$34.05	56% 1582-1267 (2849)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Piratas Veracruzavg 30.9¢	$567.95	$615.36	+$47.41	31% 412-920 (1332)
VE VenusianCTR	Piratas Veracruzavg 31¢	$268.1	$289.72	+$21.62	31% 411-924 (1335)
20 0x200f...7a96<$100	Club Atletico La Pazavg 67.8¢	$79.31	$77.81	-$1.5	—
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Piratas Veracruzavg 30.7¢	$31.73	$32.1	+$0.38	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Piratas Veracruzavg 33¢	$23.43	$23.79	+$0.36	31% 412-897 (1309)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Piratas Veracruzavg 29.9¢	$20.02	$22.47	+$2.45	30% 402-921 (1323)
SE sentrio<$100	Club Atletico La Pazavg 70.5¢	$13.28	$13.39	+$0.11	39% 395-620 (1015)

GoalLineGhost

Club Atletico La Paz

Invested

$1,968.32

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$34.05

Record

56%

1582-1267 (2849)

LightParadoxCTR

Piratas Veracruz

Invested

$567.95

Value

$615.36

PnL

+$47.41

Record

31%

412-920 (1332)

VenusianCTR

Piratas Veracruz

Invested

$268.1

Value

$289.72

PnL

+$21.62

Record

31%

411-924 (1335)

0x200f...7a96<$100

Club Atletico La Paz

Invested

$79.31

Value

$77.81

PnL

-$1.5

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Piratas Veracruz

Invested

$31.73

Value

$32.1

PnL

+$0.38

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Piratas Veracruz

Invested

$23.43

Value

$23.79

PnL

+$0.36

Record

31%

412-897 (1309)

LimousinCTR<$100

Piratas Veracruz

Invested

$20.02

Value

$22.47

PnL

+$2.45

Record

30%

402-921 (1323)

sentrio<$100

Club Atletico La Paz

Invested

$13.28

Value

$13.39

PnL

+$0.11

Record

39%

395-620 (1015)

Research grade

NeutralClub Atletico La Paz at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Club Atletico La Paz

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Club Atletico La Paz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPiratas Veracruz 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Piratas Veracruz 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Club Atletico La Paz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.