Club Atletico La Paz leading at halftime?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$169.6

Smart Money Entry

81.6¢ → 100¢

+22% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,470

Combined PnL+$173.8

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.02

Total Shares32

Combined PnL-$4.2

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 79.8¢	$363.1	$445.77	+$82.67	51% 1945-1901 (3846)
LI Limousin	Noavg 82.9¢	$363.73	$438.77	+$75.04	31% 416-938 (1354)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 79.5¢	$159	$196	+$37	51% 505-476 (981)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 80.7¢	$211.36	$160.69	-$50.67	55% 1589-1278 (2867)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$80.55	$89.03	+$8.48	31% 423-941 (1364)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 80¢	$64.94	$79.56	+$14.61	38% 167-273 (440)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 88.4¢	$22.1	$24.99	+$2.89	31% 423-938 (1361)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 81¢	$16.2	$19.99	+$3.79	32% 424-920 (1344)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$3.75	$0.01	-$3.74	—
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.47	$0	-$0.46	—

Flaznorp

Invested

$363.1

Value

$445.77

PnL

+$82.67

Record

51%

1945-1901 (3846)

Limousin

Invested

$363.73

Value

$438.77

PnL

+$75.04

Record

31%

416-938 (1354)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$159

Value

$196

PnL

+$37

Record

51%

505-476 (981)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$211.36

Value

$160.69

PnL

-$50.67

Record

55%

1589-1278 (2867)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$80.55

Value

$89.03

PnL

+$8.48

Record

31%

423-941 (1364)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$64.94

Value

$79.56

PnL

+$14.61

Record

38%

167-273 (440)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$22.1

Value

$24.99

PnL

+$2.89

Record

31%

423-938 (1361)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$16.2

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$3.79

Record

32%

424-920 (1344)

smithagentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.75

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.74

Record

—

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

PnL

-$0.46

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.