Piratas Veracruz vs. Club Atletico La Paz: 1st Half O/U 1.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 83¢ · $556 held · ended Nov 12

Over18¢Under82¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 29%

Total Value

$556.01

Combined PnL

$6.78

Smart Money Entry

73.3¢ → 82.5¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$477.47

Total Shares594

Combined PnL+$14.55

Over5 traders

Total Value$78.53

Total Shares245

Combined PnL-$7.76

Under — 29%Over — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 71.9¢	$259.44	$272.64	+$13.19	47% 299-342 (641)
RN1	Underavg 75¢	$203.48	$204.84	+$1.36	57% 4059-3079 (7138)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 37¢	$67.09	$67.09	-$0	51% 1925-1866 (3791)
5D 0x5d40...ba95CTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$5.28	$5.92	+$0.64	—
C7 0xc785...4ef2CTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$7.5	$2.88	-$4.63	—
1D 0x1d1d...f2dfCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$5.1	$1.96	-$3.14	—
E9 0xe907...cff6CTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$1.33	$0.7	-$0.63	—

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$259.44

Value

$272.64

PnL

+$13.19

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

RN1

Under

Invested

$203.48

Value

$204.84

PnL

+$1.36

Record

57%

4059-3079 (7138)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$67.09

Value

$67.09

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

0x5d40...ba95CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.28

Value

$5.92

PnL

+$0.64

Record

—

0xc785...4ef2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.5

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$4.63

Record

—

0x1d1d...f2dfCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.1

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$3.14

Record

—

0xe907...cff6CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.33

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.63

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.