Piratas Veracruz vs. Club Atletico La Paz: 1st Half O/U 0.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$731.03

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 100¢

+119% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,671

Combined PnL+$907.28

Over3 traders

Total Value$21.32

Total Shares320

Combined PnL-$176.26

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (12 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Underavg 31.1¢	$236.27	$368.07	+$391.98	31% 438-969 (1407)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 43.6¢	$147.19	$337.66	+$190.47	47% 350-393 (743)
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 89.3¢	$389.44	$291.29	-$98.15	36% 410-719 (1129)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 26.7¢	$63.44	$237.19	+$173.75	31% 441-967 (1408)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 25.8¢	$51.21	$184.22	+$133.01	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
VE Venusian	Underavg 33¢	$39.09	$118.23	+$79.14	31% 444-971 (1415)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 69.5¢	$67.92	$97.66	+$29.74	31% 242-544 (786)
SM smithagent<$100	Underavg 92¢	$58.4	$18.68	-$5.41	42% 282-393 (675)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 39.7¢	$54.84	$18.29	-$24.37	45% 436-533 (969)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 27¢	$4.72	$17.47	+$12.75	32% 444-952 (1396)
RN1CTR	Overavg 60¢	$145.19	$3.02	-$142.17	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$9.72	$0.01	-$9.71	53% 5912-5294 (11206)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$236.27

Value

$368.07

PnL

+$391.98

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$147.19

Value

$337.66

PnL

+$190.47

Record

47%

350-393 (743)

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$389.44

Value

$291.29

PnL

-$98.15

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$63.44

Value

$237.19

PnL

+$173.75

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$51.21

Value

$184.22

PnL

+$133.01

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$39.09

Value

$118.23

PnL

+$79.14

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$67.92

Value

$97.66

PnL

+$29.74

Record

31%

242-544 (786)

smithagent<$100

Under

Invested

$58.4

Value

$18.68

PnL

-$5.41

Record

42%

282-393 (675)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.84

Value

$18.29

PnL

-$24.37

Record

45%

436-533 (969)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$4.72

Value

$17.47

PnL

+$12.75

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$145.19

Value

$3.02

PnL

-$142.17

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.72

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$9.71

Record

53%

5912-5294 (11206)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (12 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.