Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 6 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Piratas Veracruz vs. Club Atletico La Paz end in a draw?

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 33¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Yes68¢No32¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$21.62

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 32.5¢

-45% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,988

Combined PnL-$83.47

Yes10 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,141

Combined PnL+$105.1

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (15 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 53% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Noavg 56¢	$810.32	$781.38	-$28.94	57% 4155-3181 (7336)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 42.8¢	$701.58	$756.03	+$54.45	55% 1616-1311 (2927)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 59.3¢	$161.62	$177.03	+$15.41	32% 444-952 (1396)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 76¢	$206.25	$158.56	-$47.69	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 53.3¢	$86.91	$106.06	+$19.15	31% 441-967 (1408)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 55.7¢	$70.3	$70.37	+$0.07	36% 410-719 (1129)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 57¢	$71.82	$68.04	-$3.78	45% 436-533 (969)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 52.2¢	$32.44	$40.41	+$7.97	31% 438-969 (1407)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 53.7¢	$23.06	$27.48	+$4.42	31% 444-971 (1415)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 76¢	$22.44	$18.61	-$3.83	40% 438-657 (1095)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$1.99	$3.8	+$1.81	14% 26-162 (188)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 43.2¢	$2.82	$3.52	+$0.7	40% 224-340 (564)
LR lryyy<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$0.85	$2.3	+$1.45	45% 304-377 (681)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.3	+$0.1	37% 179-310 (489)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.3	-$0.6	21% 166-630 (796)
0X 0x63C4dCbb199c5eCA30c8a002fF238aAd5DCE4671-1779125900020<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$1	$1.92	+$0.92	— 0-1 (1)

RN1CTR

Invested

$810.32

Value

$781.38

PnL

-$28.94

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$701.58

Value

$756.03

PnL

+$54.45

Record

55%

1616-1311 (2927)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$161.62

Value

$177.03

PnL

+$15.41

Record

32%

444-952 (1396)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$206.25

Value

$158.56

PnL

-$47.69

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$86.91

Value

$106.06

PnL

+$19.15

Record

31%

441-967 (1408)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$70.3

Value

$70.37

PnL

+$0.07

Record

36%

410-719 (1129)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$71.82

Value

$68.04

PnL

-$3.78

Record

45%

436-533 (969)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.44

Value

$40.41

PnL

+$7.97

Record

31%

438-969 (1407)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.06

Value

$27.48

PnL

+$4.42

Record

31%

444-971 (1415)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$22.44

Value

$18.61

PnL

-$3.83

Record

40%

438-657 (1095)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$1.81

Record

14%

26-162 (188)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$2.82

Value

$3.52

PnL

+$0.7

Record

40%

224-340 (564)

lryyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$1.45

Record

45%

304-377 (681)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

37%

179-310 (489)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.6

Record

21%

166-630 (796)

0x63C4dCbb199c5eCA30c8a002fF238aAd5DCE4671-1779125900020<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.92

PnL

+$0.92

Record

—

0-1 (1)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 16 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (15 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 64% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 53% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.