Will Club Atletico La Paz win on 2026-11-11?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 80¢ · $980 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$980.48
$9.42
77.8¢ → 79.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 78.2¢ | $523.91 | $478.68 | +$8.82 | 52% 497-453 (950) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 77¢ | $242.58 | $252.03 | +$9.45 | 31% 412-897 (1309) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $163.61 | $157.56 | -$6.06 | 56% 1582-1267 (2849) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.9¢ | $65.27 | $62.48 | -$2.8 | 51% 1925-1866 (3791) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $26.39 | $26.39 | +$0 | 20% 161-629 (790) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $3.35 | $3.35 | -$0 | 39% 162-258 (420) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$523.91
Value
$478.68
PnL
+$8.82
Record
52%
497-453 (950)
Invested
$242.58
Value
$252.03
PnL
+$9.45
Record
31%
412-897 (1309)
Invested
$163.61
Value
$157.56
PnL
-$6.06
Record
56%
1582-1267 (2849)
Invested
$65.27
Value
$62.48
PnL
-$2.8
Record
51%
1925-1866 (3791)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$26.39
Value
$26.39
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
161-629 (790)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.35
PnL
-$0
Record
39%
162-258 (420)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.