Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Piratas Veracruz vs. Club Atletico La Paz: Both Teams to Score
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 0.1¢ · $329 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 88%
$328.63
$77.85
45.6¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 41¢ | $117.66 | $160.59 | +$42.92 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 53.6¢ | $52.52 | $54.88 | +$2.36 | 47% 350-393 (743) |
 dips.<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $23.92 | $51.97 | +$28.05 | 45% 436-533 (969) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $33.15 | $33.76 | +$0.6 | 31% 242-544 (786) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $11.25 | $14 | +$2.75 | 32% 444-952 (1396) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $9.14 | $9.73 | +$0.59 | 36% 410-719 (1129) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $2.5 | $2.86 | +$0.36 | 31% 438-969 (1407) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $0.63 | $0.84 | +$0.21 | 45% 304-377 (681) |
Invested
$117.66
Value
$160.59
PnL
+$42.92
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
Invested
$52.52
Value
$54.88
PnL
+$2.36
Record
47%
350-393 (743)
dips.<$100Invested
$23.92
Value
$51.97
PnL
+$28.05
Record
45%
436-533 (969)
Invested
$33.15
Value
$33.76
PnL
+$0.6
Record
31%
242-544 (786)
Invested
$11.25
Value
$14
PnL
+$2.75
Record
32%
444-952 (1396)
Invested
$9.14
Value
$9.73
PnL
+$0.59
Record
36%
410-719 (1129)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.86
PnL
+$0.36
Record
31%
438-969 (1407)
Invested
$0.63
Value
$0.84
PnL
+$0.21
Record
45%
304-377 (681)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.