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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will Piratas Veracruz win on 2026-11-14?

Resolved No. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Yes 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%
No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders
Total Value$4.8K
Total Shares4,800
Combined PnL+$2.5K
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares7,103
Combined PnL$-3.8K
No — 56%Yes — 44%
0X
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465
No

Invested

$2,268.48

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

51%

3918-3715 (7633)

GO
GoalLineGhostCTR
Yes

Invested

$1,095.76

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

52%

2441-2217 (4658)

RN1CTR
Yes

Invested

$2,660.35

Value

—

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

54%

5936-5005 (10941)

TO
topdogbigboiARB<$100
Yes

Invested

$115.62

Value

$74.89

PnL

-$40.73

Record

39%

1502-2375 (3877)

Both legs:

No$41.6655.6¢+$33.23
Yes$73.9532.1¢-$73.95
AR
ARocky33<$100
No

Invested

$11.2

Value

$39.99

PnL

+$28.79

Record

78%

826-231 (1057)

VE
Venusian<$100
No

Invested

$22.31

Value

$23.48

PnL

+$1.17

Record

38%

1301-2146 (3447)

LI
Limousin<$100
No

Invested

$1.52

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$4.33

Record

38%

1276-2118 (3394)

MA
MadridTime<$100
No

Invested

$4.7

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

38%

1303-2129 (3432)

0X
0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

—

PnL

-$1.8

Record

45%

442-540 (982)

SU
suntoriCTR<$100
Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

—

PnL

-$1.9

Record

46%

3106-3639 (6745)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x16d9a71c...06b637
Slug
mex2-clu-pir-2026-11-14-pir

Traders in this Market

0X

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

No — $4.7K

+$2.5K
GO

GoalLineGhost

CTR

Yes — $0

$-1.1K

RN1

CTR

Yes — $0

$-2.7K
TO

topdogbigboi

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$40.73
AR

ARocky33

No — $39.99

+$28.79
VE

Venusian

No — $23.48

+$1.17
LI

Limousin

No — $5.85

+$4.33
MA

MadridTime

No — $5

+$0.3
0X

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

CTR

Yes — $0

-$1.8
SU

suntori

CTR

Yes — $0

-$1.9
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