Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Club Atletico La Paz vs. Piratas Veracruz: 1st Half O/U 0.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (90%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $225 held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 90%

Total Value

$224.75

Combined PnL

-$250.38

Smart Money Entry

28.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$183.04

Total Shares1,526

Combined PnL-$253.25

Over1 trader

Total Value$41.31

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$2.88

Under — 90%Over — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$92.18	$90.41	-$1.77	47% 1088-1236 (2324)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 93¢	$38.43	$41.31	+$2.88	82% 260-57 (317)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$35.36	$34.68	-$0.68	49% 4352-4620 (8972)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$47.4	$33.57	-$13.82	55% 5758-4807 (10565)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 30.7¢	$7.88	$10.13	+$2.25	38% 1202-1984 (3186)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$7.44	$7.03	-$0.41	38% 1223-2021 (3244)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$1.07	$3.73	+$2.67	38% 1351-2180 (3531)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$0.66	$3.08	+$2.42	46% 884-1056 (1940)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 28¢	$191.91	$0.34	-$191.56	38% 1230-1969 (3199)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$52.4	$0.07	-$52.33	38% 1210-2005 (3215)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$92.18

Value

$90.41

PnL

-$1.77

Record

47%

1088-1236 (2324)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$38.43

Value

$41.31

PnL

+$2.88

Record

82%

260-57 (317)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.36

Value

$34.68

PnL

-$0.68

Record

49%

4352-4620 (8972)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.4

Value

$33.57

PnL

-$13.82

Record

55%

5758-4807 (10565)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.88

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$2.25

Record

38%

1202-1984 (3186)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.44

Value

$7.03

PnL

-$0.41

Record

38%

1223-2021 (3244)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.07

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$2.67

Record

38%

1351-2180 (3531)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.66

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$2.42

Record

46%

884-1056 (1940)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$191.91

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$191.56

Record

38%

1230-1969 (3199)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.4

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$52.33

Record

38%

1210-2005 (3215)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.