Will Leones Negros UDEG win on 2026-11-05?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 71¢ · $912 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$911.84
$0.74
71.5¢ → 70.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 71.4¢ | $807.77 | $809.43 | +$1.66 | 58% 46729-33688 (80417) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 72.1¢ | $60.98 | $59.59 | -$1.38 | 51% 25823-24512 (50335) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $19.54 | $20.08 | +$0.54 | 51% 6362-6143 (12505) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $14.06 | $14.06 | +$0 | 50% 28453-28349 (56802) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 72.6¢ | $6.53 | $6.52 | -$0 | 50% 25844-25552 (51396) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $2.23 | $2.15 | -$0.08 | 50% 21206-21476 (42682) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$807.77
Value
$809.43
PnL
+$1.66
Record
58%
46729-33688 (80417)
Invested
$60.98
Value
$59.59
PnL
-$1.38
Record
51%
25823-24512 (50335)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$19.54
Value
$20.08
PnL
+$0.54
Record
51%
6362-6143 (12505)
Invested
$14.06
Value
$14.06
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
28453-28349 (56802)
Invested
$6.53
Value
$6.52
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
25844-25552 (51396)
Invested
$2.23
Value
$2.15
PnL
-$0.08
Record
50%
21206-21476 (42682)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.