Will Querétaro FC vs. Club Puebla end in a draw?

8 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 91¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 9

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

-$252.67

Smart Money Entry

79.7¢ → 90.5¢

+14% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 18 top traders (44%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares7,858

Combined PnL+$85.21

Yes10 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares7,161

Combined PnL-$337.87

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Noavg 76¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$57.06	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 83.1¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$47.16	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 86.1¢	$887.5	$933.19	+$45.69	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 24¢	$1.5K	$382.5	+$22.5	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 76.9¢	$293.61	$335.91	+$42.3	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 17.7¢	$498.72	$288.88	-$209.85	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
NM NM-PCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$120	$132.5	+$12.5	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 15.9¢	$183.42	$109.26	-$74.16	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
PT PT-S7<$100	Noavg 79.1¢	$80.76	$85.69	+$4.93	46% 3489-4043 (7532)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 14.6¢	$107.2	$69.54	-$37.66	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.4¢	$98.78	$51.12	-$47.66	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Noavg 78¢	$32.76	$35.07	+$2.31	56% 2669-2059 (4728)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 90¢	$25.79	$25.64	-$0.15	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.2¢	$18.18	$15.25	-$2.93	53% 15513-13750 (29263)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$4.08	$4.51	+$0.42	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$4.41	$3.81	-$0.6	46% 30580-35679 (66259)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 74¢	$2.85	$2.87	+$0.02	53% 2999-2623 (5622)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1	$0.56	-$0.44	65% 25418-13617 (39035)

nigiri99

Invested

$2,891.04

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$57.06

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,313.28

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$47.16

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$887.5

Value

$933.19

PnL

+$45.69

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,500

Value

$382.5

PnL

+$22.5

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

38791873984189

Invested

$293.61

Value

$335.91

PnL

+$42.3

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$498.72

Value

$288.88

PnL

-$209.85

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

NM-PCTR

Yes

Invested

$120

Value

$132.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$183.42

Value

$109.26

PnL

-$74.16

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

PT-S7<$100

Invested

$80.76

Value

$85.69

PnL

+$4.93

Record

46%

3489-4043 (7532)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$107.2

Value

$69.54

PnL

-$37.66

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.78

Value

$51.12

PnL

-$47.66

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

NordhavenCap<$100

Invested

$32.76

Value

$35.07

PnL

+$2.31

Record

56%

2669-2059 (4728)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$25.79

Value

$25.64

PnL

-$0.15

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.18

Value

$15.25

PnL

-$2.93

Record

53%

15513-13750 (29263)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.08

Value

$4.51

PnL

+$0.42

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.41

Value

$3.81

PnL

-$0.6

Record

46%

30580-35679 (66259)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.87

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

2999-2623 (5622)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$0.44

Record

65%

25418-13617 (39035)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 18 top traders (44%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.