Querétaro FC vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 4.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 98¢ · $509 held · ended Nov 14

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$508.71

Combined PnL

-$1.8

Smart Money Entry

84¢ → 97.8¢

+16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$505.11

Total Shares601

Combined PnL+$0.17

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.6

Total Shares36

Combined PnL-$1.97

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Underavg 84¢	$336	$336	+$0	56% 541-433 (974)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 84¢	$105.27	$105.3	+$0.04	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100	Underavg 84¢	$52.53	$52.53	+$0	51% 3883-3667 (7550)
dips.<$100	Underavg 83¢	$6.99	$7.07	+$0.08	47% 1041-1174 (2215)
DV dv-pm<$100	Underavg 83¢	$4.15	$4.2	+$0.05	46% 37-44 (81)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$3.95	$1.85	-$2.1	46% 2852-3388 (6240)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 17¢	$0.85	$0.8	-$0.05	41% 708-1019 (1727)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 13.5¢	$0.54	$0.64	+$0.1	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 12¢	$0.23	$0.31	+$0.08	47% 985-1122 (2107)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$336

Value

$336

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$105.27

Value

$105.3

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100

Under

Invested

$52.53

Value

$52.53

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3883-3667 (7550)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$6.99

Value

$7.07

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

1041-1174 (2215)

dv-pm<$100

Under

Invested

$4.15

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.05

Record

46%

37-44 (81)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.95

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$2.1

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.64

PnL

+$0.1

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.