Querétaro FC vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 3.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$215.48

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 98.5¢

+35% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,178

Combined PnL+$238.15

Over5 traders

Total Value$40.37

Total Shares170

Combined PnL-$22.66

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Underavg 69¢	$275.99	$377.99	+$102	56% 541-433 (974)
RN1	Underavg 75¢	$308.16	$370.05	+$61.89	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 76¢	$157.05	$193.47	+$36.41	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 68.9¢	$80.71	$105.9	+$28.73	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
dips.<$100	Underavg 83¢	$48.04	$57.15	+$9.11	47% 1041-1174 (2215)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$57.94	$36.39	-$21.54	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 1.9¢	$0.54	$1.2	+$0.66	35% 520-947 (1467)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$1.03	$1.17	+$0.14	47% 985-1122 (2107)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$1.83	$0.86	-$0.97	42% 1060-1490 (2550)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$1.7	$0.75	-$0.95	41% 708-1019 (1727)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$275.99

Value

$377.99

PnL

+$102

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

RN1

Under

Invested

$308.16

Value

$370.05

PnL

+$61.89

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$157.05

Value

$193.47

PnL

+$36.41

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$80.71

Value

$105.9

PnL

+$28.73

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$48.04

Value

$57.15

PnL

+$9.11

Record

47%

1041-1174 (2215)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$57.94

Value

$36.39

PnL

-$21.54

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.54

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.66

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.17

PnL

+$0.14

Record

47%

985-1122 (2107)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.83

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$0.97

Record

42%

1060-1490 (2550)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.7

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.95

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.