Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (80%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Querétaro FC vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 2.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 21¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over21¢Under79¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$253.33

Smart Money Entry

44.8¢ → 20.5¢

-54% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,053

Combined PnL+$179.38

Under6 traders

Total Value$845.73

Total Shares1,617

Combined PnL+$73.96

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 39¢	$421.15	$577.73	+$156.58	35% 520-947 (1467)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 50.8¢	$405.88	$427.81	+$21.93	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 46.7¢	$360.47	$355.27	-$1.82	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 39¢	$255.18	$313.79	+$58.62	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
└ Over leg	Overavg 39¢	$169.43	$232.42	+$62.99
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$85.75	$81.38	-$4.38
LI Limousin	Underavg 49¢	$190.68	$225.7	+$35.02	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
VE Venusian	Underavg 49¢	$104.47	$123.66	+$19.19	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 49¢	$100.45	$118.9	+$18.45	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$91.99	$92.86	+$0.87	46% 2852-3388 (6240)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 39.6¢	$17.13	$19.88	+$2.74	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 39¢	$1.95	$2.33	+$0.38	41% 708-1019 (1727)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$421.15

Value

$577.73

PnL

+$156.58

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$405.88

Value

$427.81

PnL

+$21.93

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$360.47

Value

$355.27

PnL

-$1.82

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$255.18

Value

$313.79

PnL

+$58.62

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

Both legs:

Over$169.4339¢+$62.99

Under$85.7549¢-$4.38

Limousin

Under

Invested

$190.68

Value

$225.7

PnL

+$35.02

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$104.47

Value

$123.66

PnL

+$19.19

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$100.45

Value

$118.9

PnL

+$18.45

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$91.99

Value

$92.86

PnL

+$0.87

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$17.13

Value

$19.88

PnL

+$2.74

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$1.95

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.38

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.