Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Querétaro FC vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 1.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 43¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Over43¢Under57¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

70.5¢ → 42.5¢

-40% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,012

Combined PnL-$96.26

Under7 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,711

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettesCTR	Overavg 72.1¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$116	53% 7213-6305 (13518)
LI Limousin	Underavg 29¢	$1.1K	$2.0K	+$906.61	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
RN1	Underavg 41.5¢	$743.16	$921.34	+$178.18	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 63.4¢	$735.6	$539.3	-$196.3	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 32.3¢	$254.48	$398.33	+$143.84	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 77¢	$308	$292	-$16	56% 541-433 (974)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 24.7¢	$73.99	$151.28	+$77.29	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 33.4¢	$32.84	$55.57	+$22.73	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 76.6¢	$36.31	$36.5	+$0.19	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 39.4¢	$10.26	$10.56	+$0.29	35% 520-947 (1467)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 80¢	$4	$3.85	-$0.15	41% 708-1019 (1727)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 20¢	$1.99	$2.29	+$0.3	49% 4123-4317 (8440)

cigarettesCTR

Over

Invested

$2,451

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$116

Record

53%

7213-6305 (13518)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$1,072.61

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$906.61

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

RN1

Under

Invested

$743.16

Value

$921.34

PnL

+$178.18

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$735.6

Value

$539.3

PnL

-$196.3

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$254.48

Value

$398.33

PnL

+$143.84

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$308

Value

$292

PnL

-$16

Record

56%

541-433 (974)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$73.99

Value

$151.28

PnL

+$77.29

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$32.84

Value

$55.57

PnL

+$22.73

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.31

Value

$36.5

PnL

+$0.19

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$10.26

Value

$10.56

PnL

+$0.29

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$3.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$1.99

Value

$2.29

PnL

+$0.3

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.