Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-09-05?
5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 79¢ · $715 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 45%
$715.07
$9.79
73.9¢ → 78.5¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 74¢ | $228.76 | $233.4 | +$4.64 | 47% 985-1122 (2107) |
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $167.67 | $171.32 | +$3.65 | 55% 5525-4565 (10090) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 75¢ | $108.67 | $107.95 | -$0.72 | 37% 1070-1834 (2904) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 72.3¢ | $86.31 | $89.85 | +$3.54 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.6¢ | $83.48 | $80.44 | -$2 | 48% 294-314 (608) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.5¢ | $14 | $14.31 | +$0.31 | 56% 4083-3191 (7274) |
PT PT-S7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.7¢ | $7.35 | $7.45 | +$0.1 | 28% 93-235 (328) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $4.83 | $5.07 | +$0.23 | 42% 1060-1490 (2550) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $3.78 | +$0.07 | 48% 2245-2407 (4652) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $1.04 | $1.04 | +$0 | 46% 2852-3388 (6240) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.1¢ | $8.52 | $0.47 | -$0.03 | 54% 1525-1316 (2841) |
Invested
$228.76
Value
$233.4
PnL
+$4.64
Record
47%
985-1122 (2107)
RN1CTRInvested
$167.67
Value
$171.32
PnL
+$3.65
Record
55%
5525-4565 (10090)
Invested
$108.67
Value
$107.95
PnL
-$0.72
Record
37%
1070-1834 (2904)
Invested
$86.31
Value
$89.85
PnL
+$3.54
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
Invested
$83.48
Value
$80.44
PnL
-$2
Record
48%
294-314 (608)
Invested
$14
Value
$14.31
PnL
+$0.31
Record
56%
4083-3191 (7274)
Invested
$7.35
Value
$7.45
PnL
+$0.1
Record
28%
93-235 (328)
Invested
$4.83
Value
$5.07
PnL
+$0.23
Record
42%
1060-1490 (2550)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$3.78
PnL
+$0.07
Record
48%
2245-2407 (4652)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.04
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
2852-3388 (6240)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$8.52
Value
$0.47
PnL
-$0.03
Record
54%
1525-1316 (2841)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.