Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-09-05?

15 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 60¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$187.91

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 59.5¢

+16% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares5,668

Combined PnL+$187.94

Yes2 traders

Total Value$44.05

Total Shares92

Combined PnL-$0.04

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 50¢	$722.57	$738.83	+$28.47	54% 1525-1316 (2841)
VE Venusian	Noavg 52.3¢	$462.91	$500.12	+$37.21	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 48.7¢	$403.12	$406.3	+$3.18	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48.7¢	$234.21	$230.64	-$3.57
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$168.91	$175.67	+$6.76
RN1	Noavg 52.4¢	$343.53	$357.25	+$13.72	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 50¢	$293.22	$331.19	+$37.96	35% 520-947 (1467)
LI Limousin	Noavg 52.8¢	$217.39	$243.12	+$25.73	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
TH thirdt1me	Noavg 50.9¢	$358.98	$242.81	+$34.84	48% 294-314 (608)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 54.2¢	$199.76	$208.12	+$8.36	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
dips.	Noavg 50¢	$197.49	$195.52	-$1.97	47% 1041-1174 (2215)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 53.6¢	$122.47	$122.18	-$0.29	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 50¢	$84.03	$85.93	+$1.9	56% 4083-3191 (7274)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$52.35	$53.92	+$1.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48¢	$31.68	$32.01	+$0.33
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 50.6¢	$73.53	$75.61	+$2.08	55% 547-442 (989)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 50¢	$42.16	$43.6	+$1.44	42% 1060-1490 (2550)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$42.19	$42.19	+$0	62% 227-140 (367)
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Noavg 57¢	$22.8	$22.6	-$0.2	77% 294-89 (383)
PT PT-S7<$100	Noavg 50¢	$13.24	$13.52	+$0.28	28% 93-235 (328)
BI biying99999<$100	Noavg 50¢	$5	$5.2	+$0.2	36% 118-207 (325)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 51¢	$5.1	$5.2	+$0.1	41% 708-1019 (1727)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$1.9	$1.86	-$0.04	46% 2852-3388 (6240)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$722.57

Value

$738.83

PnL

+$28.47

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

Venusian

Invested

$462.91

Value

$500.12

PnL

+$37.21

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$403.12

Value

$406.3

PnL

+$3.18

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

Both legs:

Yes$234.2148.7¢-$3.57

No$168.9150¢+$6.76

RN1

Invested

$343.53

Value

$357.25

PnL

+$13.72

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$293.22

Value

$331.19

PnL

+$37.96

Record

35%

520-947 (1467)

Limousin

Invested

$217.39

Value

$243.12

PnL

+$25.73

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

thirdt1me

Invested

$358.98

Value

$242.81

PnL

+$34.84

Record

48%

294-314 (608)

LightParadox

Invested

$199.76

Value

$208.12

PnL

+$8.36

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

dips.

Invested

$197.49

Value

$195.52

PnL

-$1.97

Record

47%

1041-1174 (2215)

MadridTime

Invested

$122.47

Value

$122.18

PnL

-$0.29

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$84.03

Value

$85.93

PnL

+$1.9

Record

56%

4083-3191 (7274)

Both legs:

No$52.3550¢+$1.57

Yes$31.6848¢+$0.33

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$73.53

Value

$75.61

PnL

+$2.08

Record

55%

547-442 (989)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$42.16

Value

$43.6

PnL

+$1.44

Record

42%

1060-1490 (2550)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.19

Value

$42.19

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

227-140 (367)

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Invested

$22.8

Value

$22.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

77%

294-89 (383)

PT-S7<$100

Invested

$13.24

Value

$13.52

PnL

+$0.28

Record

28%

93-235 (328)

biying99999<$100

Invested

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

36%

118-207 (325)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

41%

708-1019 (1727)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$0.04

Record

46%

2852-3388 (6240)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

15 of 17 top traders (88%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.