Will Querétaro FC vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 65¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes36¢No64¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$46.26

Smart Money Entry

69.7¢ → 64.5¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,593

Combined PnL-$64.51

Yes6 traders

Total Value$888.26

Total Shares2,562

Combined PnL+$110.78

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thirdt1me	Noavg 69.4¢	$875.28	$813.3	-$61.98	48% 294-314 (608)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 31.3¢	$346.02	$392.11	+$46.09	37% 1085-1829 (2914)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 32.2¢	$239.27	$263.6	+$24.33	37% 1070-1834 (2904)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 26.4¢	$113.74	$139.9	+$26.16	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 68.3¢	$97.42	$97.68	+$0.27	56% 4083-3191 (7274)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$70	$83.75	+$13.75	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
PT PT-S7<$100	Noavg 71¢	$81.88	$80.2	-$1.68	28% 93-235 (328)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 75¢	$55.5	$54.39	-$1.11	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$6.71	$7.12	+$0.42	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$1.75	$1.79	+$0.03	54% 1525-1316 (2841)

thirdt1me

Invested

$875.28

Value

$813.3

PnL

-$61.98

Record

48%

294-314 (608)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$346.02

Value

$392.11

PnL

+$46.09

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$239.27

Value

$263.6

PnL

+$24.33

Record

37%

1070-1834 (2904)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$113.74

Value

$139.9

PnL

+$26.16

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$97.42

Value

$97.68

PnL

+$0.27

Record

56%

4083-3191 (7274)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70

Value

$83.75

PnL

+$13.75

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

PT-S7<$100

Invested

$81.88

Value

$80.2

PnL

-$1.68

Record

28%

93-235 (328)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$55.5

Value

$54.39

PnL

-$1.11

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.71

Value

$7.12

PnL

+$0.42

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.79

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

1525-1316 (2841)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.