Querétaro FC vs. CF Monterrey: Both Teams to Score
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 95¢ · $518 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
2 arb excluded
$517.81
-$73.26
68.6¢ → 94.5¢
+38% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Noavg 57.2¢ | $166.85 | $197.97 | +$31.12 | 38% 1175-1954 (3129) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 57.2¢ | $118.55 | $140.97 | +$22.41 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.1¢ | $48.3 | $57 | +$8.71 | |
 dips. | Noavg 76.9¢ | $115.07 | $114.16 | -$0.91 | 47% 1041-1174 (2215) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $114.49 | $103.46 | -$11.03 | 49% 4123-4317 (8440) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 41¢ | $65.56 | $73.6 | +$8.04 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 59¢ | $48.93 | $29.85 | -$19.07 | |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $34.49 | $34.49 | -$0 | 55% 5525-4565 (10090) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $24.3 | $24.3 | +$0 | 47% 985-1122 (2107) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $18.52 | $18.52 | +$0 | 37% 1070-1834 (2904) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $88.21 | $15.04 | -$73.17 | 37% 1064-1806 (2870) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $5.6 | $7.2 | +$1.6 | 46% 2852-3388 (6240) |
DV dv-pm<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $2 | $2.3 | +$0.3 | 46% 37-44 (81) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $1.45 | $0.38 | -$1.08 | 37% 1085-1829 (2914) |
Invested
$166.85
Value
$197.97
PnL
+$31.12
Record
38%
1175-1954 (3129)
Both legs:
dips.Invested
$115.07
Value
$114.16
PnL
-$0.91
Record
47%
1041-1174 (2215)
Invested
$114.49
Value
$103.46
PnL
-$11.03
Record
49%
4123-4317 (8440)
Both legs:
RN1<$100Invested
$34.49
Value
$34.49
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
5525-4565 (10090)
Invested
$24.3
Value
$24.3
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
985-1122 (2107)
Invested
$18.52
Value
$18.52
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
1070-1834 (2904)
Invested
$88.21
Value
$15.04
PnL
-$73.17
Record
37%
1064-1806 (2870)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$7.2
PnL
+$1.6
Record
46%
2852-3388 (6240)
Invested
$2
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0.3
Record
46%
37-44 (81)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$0.38
PnL
-$1.08
Record
37%
1085-1829 (2914)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.