Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 69¢ · $140 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$140.19
$0.99
68.3¢ → 68.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $77.17 | $78.3 | +$1.7 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.5¢ | $32.69 | $32.2 | -$0.49 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $16.56 | $16.56 | +$0 | 50% 28918-28732 (57650) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $10 | $10 | -$0.22 | 53% 2695-2376 (5071) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $3.13 | $3.13 | -$0 | 50% 26397-26018 (52415) |
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$77.17
Value
$78.3
PnL
+$1.7
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
Invested
$32.69
Value
$32.2
PnL
-$0.49
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$16.56
Value
$16.56
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
28918-28732 (57650)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10
PnL
-$0.22
Record
53%
2695-2376 (5071)
Invested
$3.13
Value
$3.13
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
26397-26018 (52415)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.