Will CF América win on 2026-11-07?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 61¢ · $101K held · ends Nov 8

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$100.6K

Combined PnL

$827.51

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 60.5¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$65.3K

Total Shares107,972

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$33.2K

Total Shares77,188

Combined PnL$-2.0K

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OH OhWhenTheReds	Noavg 57.9¢	$62.1K	$64.9K	+$2.8K	45% 59-71 (130)
nigiri99CTR	Yesavg 43¢	$16.1K	$14.8K	$-1.3K	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 42.1¢	$11.8K	$11.4K	-$454.97	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 42.5¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$136.11	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 42.7¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$177.7	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
HI hi774cCTR	Yesavg 41.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$114.98	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$42.91	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$74.88
└ No leg	Noavg 55.6¢	$360.32	$392.29	+$31.97
LA LaarsYCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$645	$592.5	-$52.5	51% 3557-3462 (7019)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$564	$558	-$6	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43¢	$344	$316	-$28
└ No leg	Noavg 55¢	$220	$242	+$22
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 56¢	$268.24	$289.79	+$21.55	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$55.03	$54.06	-$0.97	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$46.39	$44.98	-$1.4	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 54¢	$12.42	$13.92	+$1.49	55% 1428-1180 (2608)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$7.72	$8.03	+$0.3	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

OhWhenTheReds

Invested

$62,104.15

Value

$64.9K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

45%

59-71 (130)

nigiri99CTR

Yes

Invested

$16,077.67

Value

$14.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$11,843.4

Value

$11.4K

PnL

-$454.97

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,772.11

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$136.11

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,366

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$177.7

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

hi774cCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,462.73

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$114.98

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

sentrioARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,612.79

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$42.91

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Both legs:

Yes$1,252.4842¢-$74.88

No$360.3255.6¢+$31.97

LaarsYCTR

Yes

Invested

$645

Value

$592.5

PnL

-$52.5

Record

51%

3557-3462 (7019)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$564

Value

$558

PnL

-$6

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

Both legs:

Yes$34443¢-$28

No$22055¢+$22

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$268.24

Value

$289.79

PnL

+$21.55

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$55.03

Value

$54.06

PnL

-$0.97

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$46.39

Value

$44.98

PnL

-$1.4

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$12.42

Value

$13.92

PnL

+$1.49

Record

55%

1428-1180 (2608)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$7.72

Value

$8.03

PnL

+$0.3

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.