Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (66%). 8 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Club León FC vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 1.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 35¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 9

Over66¢Under34¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$112.85

Smart Money Entry

40.2¢ → 34.5¢

-14% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 66%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over66%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares7,777

Combined PnL+$69.01

Over4 traders

Total Value$766.76

Total Shares1,099

Combined PnL+$43.84

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 24.3¢	$538.12	$1.1K	+$568.08	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 49.5¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$410.3	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 69.3¢	$385.22	$369.75	-$15.47	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 60.1¢	$523.17	$304.53	-$218.64	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 21.5¢	$130.47	$302.98	+$172.5	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
RN1CTR	Underavg 48.1¢	$375.13	$272.78	-$102.35	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
CI cigarettes	Overavg 58.5¢	$218.5	$229.99	+$11.5	50% 65492-65807 (131299)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 26.9¢	$82.82	$153.75	+$70.93	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
alpheclabs2<$100	Overavg 46¢	$77.28	$84	+$6.72	47% 1640-1847 (3487)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 31.3¢	$41.93	$83.02	+$41.09	46% 30580-35679 (66259)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$73.53	$61.28	-$12.25	46% 12136-14078 (26214)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 39.2¢	$3.79	$4.84	+$1.05	47% 2148-2414 (4562)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$538.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$568.08

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,502.7

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$410.3

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$385.22

Value

$369.75

PnL

-$15.47

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$523.17

Value

$304.53

PnL

-$218.64

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$130.47

Value

$302.98

PnL

+$172.5

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$375.13

Value

$272.78

PnL

-$102.35

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

cigarettes

Over

Invested

$218.5

Value

$229.99

PnL

+$11.5

Record

50%

65492-65807 (131299)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$82.82

Value

$153.75

PnL

+$70.93

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

alpheclabs2<$100

Over

Invested

$77.28

Value

$84

PnL

+$6.72

Record

47%

1640-1847 (3487)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$41.93

Value

$83.02

PnL

+$41.09

Record

46%

30580-35679 (66259)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$73.53

Value

$61.28

PnL

-$12.25

Record

46%

12136-14078 (26214)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.79

Value

$4.84

PnL

+$1.05

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 35%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 66%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.