Will Club León FC win on 2026-11-08?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 75¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 9

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$10.9K

Combined PnL

$191.87

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 74.5¢

+2% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares14,241

Combined PnL+$196.15

Yes3 traders

Total Value$183.13

Total Shares701

Combined PnL-$4.28

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 73¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$67.66	46% 30580-35679 (66259)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 72.2¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$80.82	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
NM NM-P	Noavg 74.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$5.49	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 73.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$20.82	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
GC GC-P	Noavg 74¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$7.5	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 73¢	$500.49	$510.71	+$10.22	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
0xheavy888	Noavg 73.5¢	$294	$298	+$4	56% 8780-6967 (15747)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 73¢	$120.62	$119.81	-$0.82	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$112.28	$110.2	-$2.08	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.3¢	$72.13	$69.87	-$2.26	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 70¢	$56.37	$56.45	+$0.08	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 73.4¢	$25.26	$25.63	+$0.37	51% 6692-6432 (13124)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$3	$3.06	+$0.06	47% 2148-2414 (4562)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$3,293

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$67.66

Record

46%

30580-35679 (66259)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,547.6

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$80.82

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

NM-P

Invested

$1,411.5

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$5.49

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,113.67

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$20.82

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

GC-P

Invested

$1,110

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$7.5

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$500.49

Value

$510.71

PnL

+$10.22

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

0xheavy888

Invested

$294

Value

$298

PnL

+$4

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

SnakeBall

Invested

$120.62

Value

$119.81

PnL

-$0.82

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$112.28

Value

$110.2

PnL

-$2.08

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.13

Value

$69.87

PnL

-$2.26

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$56.37

Value

$56.45

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$25.26

Value

$25.63

PnL

+$0.37

Record

51%

6692-6432 (13124)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.06

PnL

+$0.06

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.