Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-11-08?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 48¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 9

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$89.1

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 47.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares6,177

Combined PnL+$92.25

No6 traders

Total Value$858.08

Total Shares1,634

Combined PnL-$3.16

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 46¢	$4.3K	$2.1K	+$65.03	50% 23449-23463 (46912)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$22.64	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46¢	$764.25	$789.17	+$24.92
└ No leg	Noavg 52.7¢	$535.07	$532.78	-$2.29
VeryLucky888	Noavg 52.9¢	$561.73	$556.99	-$4.74	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 46¢	$384.05	$396.57	+$12.52	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 46¢	$327.59	$338.27	+$10.68	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
GC GC-P	Noavg 52¢	$154.89	$156.38	+$1.49	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 52¢	$91	$91.88	+$0.88	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 45.7¢	$75.45	$78.38	+$2.93	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$39.95	$40.38	+$0.43	48% 3587-3956 (7543)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 52¢	$33.51	$33.84	+$0.32	46% 30568-35672 (66240)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$20.3	$20.96	+$0.66	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 55¢	$14.4	$13.74	-$0.65	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 57¢	$5.71	$5.26	-$0.45	53% 2982-2598 (5580)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,335.34

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$65.03

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,299.32

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$22.64

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

Both legs:

Yes$764.2546¢+$24.92

No$535.0752.7¢-$2.29

VeryLucky888

Invested

$561.73

Value

$556.99

PnL

-$4.74

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$384.05

Value

$396.57

PnL

+$12.52

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$327.59

Value

$338.27

PnL

+$10.68

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

GC-P

Invested

$154.89

Value

$156.38

PnL

+$1.49

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$91

Value

$91.88

PnL

+$0.88

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.45

Value

$78.38

PnL

+$2.93

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.95

Value

$40.38

PnL

+$0.43

Record

48%

3587-3956 (7543)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$33.51

Value

$33.84

PnL

+$0.32

Record

46%

30568-35672 (66240)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.3

Value

$20.96

PnL

+$0.66

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$14.4

Value

$13.74

PnL

-$0.65

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$5.71

Value

$5.26

PnL

-$0.45

Record

53%

2982-2598 (5580)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.