Will Club León FC vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 65¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 9

Yes36¢No64¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

$245.67

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 64.5¢

-7% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares7,518

Combined PnL-$396.24

Yes6 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares11,522

Combined PnL+$641.91

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 67.2¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$111.71	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 71.8¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$208.85	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 32.2¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$164.15	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 29.9¢	$941.31	$1.1K	+$144.6	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
PT PT-S7	Noavg 68.5¢	$838.68	$789.7	-$48.98	46% 3489-4043 (7532)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 29.9¢	$637.78	$767.13	+$129.36	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$585.89	$718.23	+$132.34	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
RN1	Noavg 68¢	$531.17	$504.98	-$26.19	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 27.1¢	$206.15	$278.01	+$71.86	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 69¢	$6.9	$6.4	-$0.5	52% 6060-5587 (11647)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 38.2¢	$2.05	$1.64	-$0.41	33% 1256-2575 (3831)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,026.16

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$111.71

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

38791873984189

Invested

$1,800.61

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$208.85

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,231.27

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$164.15

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$941.31

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$144.6

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

PT-S7

Invested

$838.68

Value

$789.7

PnL

-$48.98

Record

46%

3489-4043 (7532)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$637.78

Value

$767.13

PnL

+$129.36

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$585.89

Value

$718.23

PnL

+$132.34

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

RN1

Invested

$531.17

Value

$504.98

PnL

-$26.19

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$206.15

Value

$278.01

PnL

+$71.86

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

6060-5587 (11647)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.64

PnL

-$0.41

Record

33%

1256-2575 (3831)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.