Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Club León FC vs. CD Guadalajara: Both Teams to Score
Resolved Yes. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
13
No 58%
1 arb excluded
$6.4K
-$545.65
Smart Money Signal
7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Yesavg 61.2¢ | $1.4K | $2.8K | +$1.4K | 45% 14516-17894 (32410) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $1.2K | $1.9K | $-2.7K | 52% 48799-45780 (94579) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50.3¢ | $961.69 | $1.9K | +$950.91 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40¢ | $2.9K | — | $-3.7K | |
38 38791873984189 | Yesavg 45.3¢ | $547.79 | $1.2K | +$660.42 | 48% 71751-77431 (149182) |
LU LuckyLoo | Yesavg 13¢ | $451.16 | $451.16 | +$392.51 | 46% 30648-35739 (66387) |
RO Rocky31CTR | Noavg 80.3¢ | $117.28 | — | -$117.28 | 75% 2162-711 (2873) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Yesavg 90¢ | $11.11 | $11.11 | +$1.11 | 65% 25448-13646 (39094) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $35.15 | — | -$53 | 50% 28041-27516 (55557) |
US User7429<$100 | Yesavg 87¢ | $6.29 | $6.29 | +$0.82 | 56% 10402-8191 (18593) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Noavg 40.7¢ | $1.4K | — | $-1.4K | 50% 49072-48621 (97693) |
LI LimousinCTR | Noavg 41.3¢ | $2.1K | — | -$875.83 | 47% 2600-2967 (5567) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Noavg 40.5¢ | $438.22 | — | -$438.22 | 46% 2489-2964 (5453) |
VE VenusianCTR | Noavg 44.5¢ | $126.63 | — | -$126.63 | 45% 2560-3085 (5645) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $0.61 | — | -$0.61 | 58% 53377-37936 (91313) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 66106-66575 (132681) |
nigiri99Invested
$1,412.32
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
45%
14516-17894 (32410)
Invested
$1,186.02
Value
$1.9K
PnL
$-2.7K
Record
52%
48799-45780 (94579)
Both legs:
Invested
$547.79
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$660.42
Record
48%
71751-77431 (149182)
Invested
$451.16
Value
$451.16
PnL
+$392.51
Record
46%
30648-35739 (66387)
Invested
$117.28
Value
—
PnL
-$117.28
Record
75%
2162-711 (2873)
Invested
$11.11
Value
$11.11
PnL
+$1.11
Record
65%
25448-13646 (39094)
Invested
$35.15
Value
—
PnL
-$53
Record
50%
28041-27516 (55557)
Invested
$6.29
Value
$6.29
PnL
+$0.82
Record
56%
10402-8191 (18593)
Invested
$1,397.63
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
50%
49072-48621 (97693)
Invested
$2,122.2
Value
—
PnL
-$875.83
Record
47%
2600-2967 (5567)
Invested
$438.22
Value
—
PnL
-$438.22
Record
46%
2489-2964 (5453)
Invested
$126.63
Value
—
PnL
-$126.63
Record
45%
2560-3085 (5645)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.61
Value
—
PnL
-$0.61
Record
58%
53377-37936 (91313)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
66106-66575 (132681)