Will Atlas FC win on 2026-11-07?

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 61¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 7

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

64.6¢ → 60.5¢

-6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 14 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares14,481

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Yes10 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares16,133

Combined PnL+$693.09

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Noavg 65.1¢	$29.6K	$7.6K	$-1.9K	82% 2653-595 (3248)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 60.1¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	+$149.31	51% 26884-25495 (52379)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.1¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$3.95
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.8¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$153.26
GA GaditimaCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$189.77	47% 7485-8285 (15770)
nigiri99CTR	Yesavg 34.3¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$301.68	46% 8715-10380 (19095)
LI Limousin	Noavg 61.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$3.61	50% 1794-1776 (3570)
HI hi774cCTR	Yesavg 36.5¢	$1,000	$1.1K	+$96.1	46% 5279-6123 (11402)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Noavg 60¢	$943.71	$500	+$8.93	58% 47334-34134 (81468)
└ No leg	Noavg 60¢	$300	$300	+$0
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 39.5¢	$197.73	$200	+$8.93
FO forecastication4CTR	Yesavg 38¢	$245.71	$258.64	+$12.93	50% 1403-1402 (2805)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$226.6	$238.53	+$11.93	50% 38141-37389 (75530)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 34.1¢	$201.38	$236.18	+$34.8	49% 1774-1854 (3628)
SH shiifooCTR	Yesavg 32.1¢	$160.97	$200.78	+$39.81	47% 4108-4660 (8768)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$106.6	$109.33	+$2.73	49% 14959-15843 (30802)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 59¢	$26.36	$26.81	+$0.22	50% 26296-25935 (52231)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.7¢	$18.24	$21.64	+$3.4	49% 1740-1836 (3576)
DV dv-pm<$100	Noavg 61¢	$5	$3.03	-$0.03	48% 3363-3589 (6952)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$2.05	$2	-$0.05	52% 8906-8084 (16990)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Invested

$29,583.83

Value

$7.6K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

82%

2653-595 (3248)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$4,967.11

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$149.31

Record

51%

26884-25495 (52379)

Both legs:

No$3,181.5160.1¢-$3.95

Yes$1,785.636.8¢+$153.26

GaditimaCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,332.42

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$189.77

Record

47%

7485-8285 (15770)

nigiri99CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,515.2

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$301.68

Record

46%

8715-10380 (19095)

Limousin

Invested

$1,211.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$3.61

Record

50%

1794-1776 (3570)

hi774cCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$96.1

Record

46%

5279-6123 (11402)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Invested

$943.71

Value

$500

PnL

+$8.93

Record

58%

47334-34134 (81468)

Both legs:

No$30060¢+$0

Yes$197.7339.5¢+$8.93

forecastication4CTR

Yes

Invested

$245.71

Value

$258.64

PnL

+$12.93

Record

50%

1403-1402 (2805)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$226.6

Value

$238.53

PnL

+$11.93

Record

50%

38141-37389 (75530)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$201.38

Value

$236.18

PnL

+$34.8

Record

49%

1774-1854 (3628)

shiifooCTR

Yes

Invested

$160.97

Value

$200.78

PnL

+$39.81

Record

47%

4108-4660 (8768)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$106.6

Value

$109.33

PnL

+$2.73

Record

49%

14959-15843 (30802)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$26.36

Value

$26.81

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

26296-25935 (52231)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.24

Value

$21.64

PnL

+$3.4

Record

49%

1740-1836 (3576)

dv-pm<$100

Invested

Value

$3.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

3363-3589 (6952)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

8906-8084 (16990)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 14 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 70% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.