Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-09-05?

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 29

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$161.37

Smart Money Entry

86.2¢ → 88.8¢

+3% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares12,229

Combined PnL+$179.8

Yes3 traders

Total Value$29.65

Total Shares243

Combined PnL-$18.44

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 86¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$104.49	50% 32969-32506 (65475)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 86.1¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$60.24	59% 44933-31331 (76264)
RN1	Noavg 86.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$21.27	54% 55932-48052 (103984)
GH ghostorder	Noavg 87.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$2.12	62% 4293-2649 (6942)
CA Cannae	Noavg 83.4¢	$615.78	$612.52	-$3.26	53% 15797-13980 (29777)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 88.2¢	$253.47	$252.14	-$1.33	49% 12313-12578 (24891)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$223.01	$203.75	-$19.26	57% 1650-1227 (2877)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12.8¢	$170.48	$149.71	-$20.78
└ No leg	Noavg 86.3¢	$52.53	$54.04	+$1.51
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 86.5¢	$206.31	$202.98	-$3.33	36% 14999-27063 (42062)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 88¢	$156.08	$157.1	+$1.02	52% 13603-12436 (26039)
0xheavy888<$100	Noavg 83.2¢	$69.36	$73.7	+$4.34	56% 6940-5557 (12497)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$67.93	$64.42	-$3.51	53% 707-635 (1342)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 83.8¢	$29.33	$29.05	-$0.28	50% 24869-24570 (49439)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.8¢	$41.1	$24.23	-$16.87	54% 6118-5182 (11300)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 74.6¢	$21	$19.04	-$1.96	59% 9529-6541 (16070)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$5.04	$3.67	-$1.37	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$3.97	$1.75	-$0.2	53% 2109-1869 (3978)

SnakeBall

Invested

$3,998.06

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$104.49

Record

50%

32969-32506 (65475)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$3,061.12

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$60.24

Record

59%

44933-31331 (76264)

RN1

Invested

$1,150.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$21.27

Record

54%

55932-48052 (103984)

ghostorder

Invested

$1,130.16

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$2.12

Record

62%

4293-2649 (6942)

Cannae

Invested

$615.78

Value

$612.52

PnL

-$3.26

Record

53%

15797-13980 (29777)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$253.47

Value

$252.14

PnL

-$1.33

Record

49%

12313-12578 (24891)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$223.01

Value

$203.75

PnL

-$19.26

Record

57%

1650-1227 (2877)

Both legs:

Yes$170.4812.8¢-$20.78

No$52.5386.3¢+$1.51

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$206.31

Value

$202.98

PnL

-$3.33

Record

36%

14999-27063 (42062)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$156.08

Value

$157.1

PnL

+$1.02

Record

52%

13603-12436 (26039)

0xheavy888<$100

Invested

$69.36

Value

$73.7

PnL

+$4.34

Record

56%

6940-5557 (12497)

RichieRicher<$100

Invested

$67.93

Value

$64.42

PnL

-$3.51

Record

53%

707-635 (1342)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$29.33

Value

$29.05

PnL

-$0.28

Record

50%

24869-24570 (49439)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.1

Value

$24.23

PnL

-$16.87

Record

54%

6118-5182 (11300)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$21

Value

$19.04

PnL

-$1.96

Record

59%

9529-6541 (16070)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.04

Value

$3.67

PnL

-$1.37

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.97

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

2109-1869 (3978)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.2%

88.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.