Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 60¢ · $230 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$230
$25.55
66¢ → 60¢
-9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 65¢ | $433.38 | $132.52 | +$23.49 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
74 0x7495...7fcf<$100 | Noavg 79.5¢ | $39.6 | $40 | +$0.4 | — |
SN SnapElectionAvoider<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $29.4 | $30.63 | +$1.23 | 53% 1107-988 (2095) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.5¢ | $22.48 | $22.5 | +$0.02 | 32% 4355-9375 (13730) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $3.64 | $4.06 | +$0.42 | 45% 1830-2273 (4103) |
Invested
$433.38
Value
$132.52
PnL
+$23.49
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
Invested
$39.6
Value
$40
PnL
+$0.4
Record
—
Invested
$29.4
Value
$30.63
PnL
+$1.23
Record
53%
1107-988 (2095)
Invested
$22.48
Value
$22.5
PnL
+$0.02
Record
32%
4355-9375 (13730)
Invested
$3.64
Value
$4.06
PnL
+$0.42
Record
45%
1830-2273 (4103)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.