Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) <10.5%?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 95¢ · $181 held · ends Oct 29

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$181.46

Combined PnL

-$7.44

Smart Money Entry

99.5¢ → 94.6¢

-5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$172.77

Total Shares183

Combined PnL-$9.7

Yes1 trader

Total Value$8.69

Total Shares132

Combined PnL+$2.26

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.43	$27.52	-$1.91	48% 3408-3679 (7087)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.43	$27.52	-$1.91	33% 304-623 (927)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$28.13	$26.37	-$1.76	32% 303-640 (943)
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$28.16	$26.37	-$1.79	32% 279-606 (885)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$27.85	$26.06	-$1.79	31% 251-551 (802)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$19.49	$20.26	+$0.77	18% 3764-16675 (20439)
ZE zerone777<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$18.68	-$1.3	41% 379-537 (916)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$6.43	$8.69	+$2.26	36% 14550-25983 (40533)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$29.43

Value

$27.52

PnL

-$1.91

Record

48%

3408-3679 (7087)

akroll<$100

Invested

$29.43

Value

$27.52

PnL

-$1.91

Record

33%

304-623 (927)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$28.13

Value

$26.37

PnL

-$1.76

Record

32%

303-640 (943)

klli27<$100

Invested

$28.16

Value

$26.37

PnL

-$1.79

Record

32%

279-606 (885)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$27.85

Value

$26.06

PnL

-$1.79

Record

31%

251-551 (802)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$19.49

Value

$20.26

PnL

+$0.77

Record

18%

3764-16675 (20439)

zerone777<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$18.68

PnL

-$1.3

Record

41%

379-537 (916)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.43

Value

$8.69

PnL

+$2.26

Record

36%

14550-25983 (40533)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.8%

94.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.42

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.