Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 15, 2026?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 16

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

$212.08

Smart Money Entry

95.8¢ → 97.4¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares12,772

Combined PnL+$235.1

Yes3 traders

Total Value$81.79

Total Shares2,683

Combined PnL-$23.02

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Noavg 96.1¢	$6.5K	$6.6K	+$117.95	39% 233-366 (599)
TH thoodr	Noavg 96.5¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	+$25.01	97% 694-25 (719)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 97¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$8.01	90% 5038-573 (5611)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Noavg 87¢	$480.35	$538.14	+$57.78	63% 189-111 (300)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 96.4¢	$249.75	$253.59	+$3.83	56% 18839-15009 (33848)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 96.4¢	$200	$194.9	+$2.1	73% 3016-1100 (4116)
paddaa<$100	Noavg 61¢	$33.55	$53.6	+$20.05	57% 873-668 (1541)
LolakisCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$63.95	$49.56	-$14.43	58% 724-525 (1249)
Dr.mett<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$34.64	$35.27	+$0.2	86% 1493-239 (1732)
32 328.400.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$16.4	$20.91	+$4.51	58% 38-28 (66)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$24.42	$11.32	-$13.1	47% 129-148 (277)
PaddyAlpha<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$53.13	$4.89	+$0.16	59% 1021-711 (1732)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Invested

$6,469.4

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$117.95

Record

39%

233-366 (599)

thoodr

Invested

$2,560

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$25.01

Record

97%

694-25 (719)

nonkenny90

Invested

$2,303.31

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$8.01

Record

90%

5038-573 (5611)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Invested

$480.35

Value

$538.14

PnL

+$57.78

Record

63%

189-111 (300)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$249.75

Value

$253.59

PnL

+$3.83

Record

56%

18839-15009 (33848)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$200

Value

$194.9

PnL

+$2.1

Record

73%

3016-1100 (4116)

paddaa<$100

Invested

$33.55

Value

$53.6

PnL

+$20.05

Record

57%

873-668 (1541)

LolakisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.95

Value

$49.56

PnL

-$14.43

Record

58%

724-525 (1249)

Dr.mett<$100

Invested

$34.64

Value

$35.27

PnL

+$0.2

Record

86%

1493-239 (1732)

328.400.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.4

Value

$20.91

PnL

+$4.51

Record

58%

38-28 (66)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.42

Value

$11.32

PnL

-$13.1

Record

47%

129-148 (277)

PaddyAlpha<$100

Invested

$53.13

Value

$4.89

PnL

+$0.16

Record

59%

1021-711 (1732)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.