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1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 79¢ · $3K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 17%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$16.8

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 6 top traders (17%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,141

Combined PnL+$15

Yes5 traders

Total Value$345.98

Total Shares1,609

Combined PnL-$31.8

No — 17%Yes — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

107h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Tenebrus7	Noavg 77.5¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$15	0% 0-41 (41)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$318.48	$285.3	-$33.17	42% 490-682 (1172)
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Noavg 77.3¢	$396.25	$259.99	-$2.61	— 0-12 (12)
└ No leg	Noavg 77.3¢	$202.07	$203.81	+$1.31
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.6¢	$59.18	$56.18	-$3.92
SU SulkingCryptoARB<$100	Noavg 79¢	$98.98	$97.51	-$1.47	— 1-9 (10)
└ No leg	Noavg 79¢	$77.42	$76.44	-$0.98
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22¢	$21.56	$21.07	-$0.49
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 79¢	$94.14	$92.51	-$1.64	41% 3010-4415 (7425)
└ No leg	Noavg 79¢	$50	$49.37	-$0.63
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22¢	$44.14	$43.14	-$1
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$92	$43	-$3	47% 1610-1838 (3448)
LolakisCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$220	$14.21	+$4.45	0% 0-31 (31)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$2.44	$2.38	-$0.06	4% 5-125 (130)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.1	$1.08	-$0.03	51% 266-256 (522)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$2,435.04

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$15

Record

0-41 (41)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$318.48

Value

$285.3

PnL

-$33.17

Record

42%

490-682 (1172)

WarriorHARB<$100

Invested

$396.25

Value

$259.99

PnL

-$2.61

Record

—

0-12 (12)

Both legs:

No$202.0777.3¢+$1.31

Yes$59.1822.6¢-$3.92

SulkingCryptoARB<$100

Invested

$98.98

Value

$97.51

PnL

-$1.47

Record

—

1-9 (10)

Both legs:

No$77.4279¢-$0.98

Yes$21.5622¢-$0.49

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$94.14

Value

$92.51

PnL

-$1.64

Record

41%

3010-4415 (7425)

Both legs:

No$5079¢-$0.63

Yes$44.1422¢-$1

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92

Value

$43

PnL

-$3

Record

47%

1610-1838 (3448)

LolakisCTR

Yes

Invested

$220

Value

$14.21

PnL

+$4.45

Record

0-31 (31)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.44

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.06

Record

5-125 (130)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.03

Record

51%

266-256 (522)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 6 top traders (17%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

107h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.