Will Valmiera FC win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$14.17

Smart Money Entry

76.1¢ → 95¢

+25% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,288

Combined PnL+$441.9

Yes3 traders

Total Value$129.95

Total Shares2,563

Combined PnL-$456.07

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 77.2¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$402.31	49% 3800-3964 (7764)
BI biying99999	Noavg 70¢	$238	$258.4	+$20.4	35% 103-192 (295)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72.2¢	$136.47	$143.74	+$7.27	53% 2076-1824 (3900)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Yesavg 25.4¢	$130.58	$132.07	+$1.49	48% 285-304 (589)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.4¢	$64.77	$69.91	+$5.14
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.4¢	$65.81	$62.16	-$3.65
WI Winning2...CTR	Yesavg 23¢	$582.82	$126.7	-$456.12	20% 7-28 (35)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 71¢	$78.74	$79.56	+$0.82	56% 460-366 (826)
└ No leg	Noavg 71¢	$42.6	$46.2	+$3.6
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26¢	$36.14	$33.36	-$2.78
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 76.1¢	$64.56	$65.78	+$1.22	47% 895-991 (1886)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$49.05	$60.23	+$11.19	37% 956-1658 (2614)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 77¢	$48.79	$48.16	-$0.63	35% 437-797 (1234)
RN1<$100	Noavg 81¢	$21.32	$21.45	+$0.13	55% 5362-4301 (9663)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$2.16	$2.4	+$0.24	48% 2063-2220 (4283)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$1.04	$0.85	-$0.19	46% 2570-3056 (5626)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,005.09

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$402.31

Record

49%

3800-3964 (7764)

biying99999

Invested

$238

Value

$258.4

PnL

+$20.4

Record

35%

103-192 (295)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$136.47

Value

$143.74

PnL

+$7.27

Record

53%

2076-1824 (3900)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$130.58

Value

$132.07

PnL

+$1.49

Record

48%

285-304 (589)

Both legs:

Invested

$582.82

Value

$126.7

PnL

-$456.12

Record

20%

7-28 (35)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$78.74

Value

$79.56

PnL

+$0.82

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

Both legs:

No$42.671¢+$3.6

Yes$36.1426¢-$2.78

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$64.56

Value

$65.78

PnL

+$1.22

Record

47%

895-991 (1886)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$49.05

Value

$60.23

PnL

+$11.19

Record

37%

956-1658 (2614)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$48.79

Value

$48.16

PnL

-$0.63

Record

35%

437-797 (1234)

RN1<$100

Invested

$21.32

Value

$21.45

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

5362-4301 (9663)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.24

Record

48%

2063-2220 (4283)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$0.19

Record

46%

2570-3056 (5626)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.