Will FK Tukums 2000/TSS win on 2026-11-14?

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 100¢ · $956 held · ended Nov 14

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$955.92

Combined PnL

$91.34

Smart Money Entry

70¢ → 100¢

+43% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$684.45

Total Shares723

Combined PnL+$90.34

No8 traders

Total Value$271.47

Total Shares643

Combined PnL+$1

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 74.5¢	$532.32	$581.68	+$49.36	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
rayvanmechelen	Yesavg 49¢	$61.79	$102.77	+$40.98	9% 30-286 (316)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 50¢	$100	$100	+$0	53% 1337-1165 (2502)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 50.8¢	$91.47	$90.14	-$1.33	48% 285-304 (589)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 50.8¢	$56.06	$55.12	-$0.94	53% 2076-1824 (3900)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$7.99	$9.8	+$1.82	35% 437-797 (1234)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$5.88	$6.66	+$0.78	37% 956-1658 (2614)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$5.11	$5.56	+$0.44	56% 460-366 (826)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$2.97	$3.24	+$0.27	47% 895-991 (1886)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$1	$0.95	-$0.05	42% 989-1357 (2346)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$532.32

Value

$581.68

PnL

+$49.36

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

rayvanmechelen

Yes

Invested

$61.79

Value

$102.77

PnL

+$40.98

Record

30-286 (316)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$100

Value

$100

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1337-1165 (2502)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$91.47

Value

$90.14

PnL

-$1.33

Record

48%

285-304 (589)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$56.06

Value

$55.12

PnL

-$0.94

Record

53%

2076-1824 (3900)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$7.99

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$1.82

Record

35%

437-797 (1234)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$5.88

Value

$6.66

PnL

+$0.78

Record

37%

956-1658 (2614)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.56

PnL

+$0.44

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$2.97

Value

$3.24

PnL

+$0.27

Record

47%

895-991 (1886)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

42%

989-1357 (2346)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.