Will FC RFS win on 2026-11-08?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$909.71

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 97.3¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,462

Combined PnL-$997.18

Yes2 traders

Total Value$434.31

Total Shares760

Combined PnL+$87.47

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
E4 e46m3	Noavg 95.5¢	$1.2K	$635.75	-$531.66	63% 33619-19478 (53097)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 86.3¢	$385.19	$433.83	+$48.64	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$320.75	$424.22	+$103.47	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 88.3¢	$375.59	$413.05	+$37.46	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
dips.	Noavg 98.1¢	$708.25	$375.44	-$332.81	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
WH whig	Noavg 91¢	$568.62	$324.92	-$243.69	59% 423-293 (716)
DE 0xdea2...e981<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$86.78	$11.07	+$24.89	64% 18-10 (28)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 124.1¢	$26.09	$10.09	-$16	28% 3390-8578 (11968)

e46m3

Invested

$1,167.42

Value

$635.75

PnL

-$531.66

Record

63%

33619-19478 (53097)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$385.19

Value

$433.83

PnL

+$48.64

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$320.75

Value

$424.22

PnL

+$103.47

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$375.59

Value

$413.05

PnL

+$37.46

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

dips.

Invested

$708.25

Value

$375.44

PnL

-$332.81

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

whig

Invested

$568.62

Value

$324.92

PnL

-$243.69

Record

59%

423-293 (716)

0xdea2...e981<$100

Invested

$86.78

Value

$11.07

PnL

+$24.89

Record

64%

18-10 (28)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.09

Value

$10.09

PnL

-$16

Record

28%

3390-8578 (11968)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.