Riga FC leading at halftime?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $409 held · ends Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$409.34

Combined PnL

$76.46

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 99.3¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$278.52

Total Shares341

Combined PnL-$49.65

Yes3 traders

Total Value$130.83

Total Shares530

Combined PnL+$126.12

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
dips.	Noavg 98.1¢	$294.2	$157.5	-$136.7	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
LI Limousin	Noavg 70.1¢	$19.18	$110.08	+$90.91	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$2.97	$89.62	+$86.65	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.3	$39.27	+$37.97	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 71¢	$14.8	$10.93	-$3.86	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
CA canupdatelateronCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$6.9	$1.94	+$1.51	65% 573-304 (877)

dips.

Invested

$294.2

Value

$157.5

PnL

-$136.7

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

Limousin

Invested

$19.18

Value

$110.08

PnL

+$90.91

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.97

Value

$89.62

PnL

+$86.65

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$39.27

PnL

+$37.97

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$14.8

Value

$10.93

PnL

-$3.86

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

canupdatelateronCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.9

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$1.51

Record

65%

573-304 (877)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.