Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (95%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Riga FC 0 - 0 FC RFS?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 4.9¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
No
9
No 67%
$5.2K
$-5.9K
77.8¢ → 4.9¢
-94% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 dips. | Yesavg 98¢ | $4.0K | $3.8K | -$123.28 | 46% 12125-14052 (26177) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 82.6¢ | $3.6K | $507.94 | $-3.1K | 51% 47280-44570 (91850) |
WH whosay | Yesavg 86.4¢ | $429.8 | $472.47 | +$42.67 | 57% 1299-970 (2269) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 91¢ | $2.9K | $143.53 | $-2.5K | 46% 30579-35678 (66257) |
 Rex416 | Yesavg 85¢ | $106.47 | $118.99 | +$12.53 | 56% 2859-2279 (5138) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Noavg 17.3¢ | $811.38 | $40.57 | +$64.02 | 50% 23482-23489 (46971) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 85.6¢ | $282.8 | $20 | -$262.8 | 59% 52401-37126 (89527) |
SN SnoorrasonCTR<$100 | Noavg 5.9¢ | $13.8 | $11.58 | -$2.22 | 39% 1517-2415 (3932) |
SE sentrioCTR | Noavg 85.3¢ | $104.41 | $6.54 | -$97.88 | 50% 27958-27406 (55364) |
dips.Invested
$4,050
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$123.28
Record
46%
12125-14052 (26177)
Invested
$3,558.45
Value
$507.94
PnL
$-3.1K
Record
51%
47280-44570 (91850)
Invested
$429.8
Value
$472.47
PnL
+$42.67
Record
57%
1299-970 (2269)
Invested
$2,870.63
Value
$143.53
PnL
$-2.5K
Record
46%
30579-35678 (66257)
Rex416Invested
$106.47
Value
$118.99
PnL
+$12.53
Record
56%
2859-2279 (5138)
Invested
$811.38
Value
$40.57
PnL
+$64.02
Record
50%
23482-23489 (46971)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$282.8
Value
$20
PnL
-$262.8
Record
59%
52401-37126 (89527)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$11.58
PnL
-$2.22
Record
39%
1517-2415 (3932)
Invested
$104.41
Value
$6.54
PnL
-$97.88
Record
50%
27958-27406 (55364)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.