Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (89%). 14 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Riga FC vs. FC RFS end in a draw?

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 11¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 8

Yes89¢No11¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$15.2K

Combined PnL

$309.7

Smart Money Entry

37.7¢ → 11¢

-71% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares26,827

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares12,282

Combined PnL+$1.9K

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 65.1¢	$8.5K	$6.6K	$-2.0K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
DE 0xdea2...e981	Yesavg 36.7¢	$4.3K	$5.5K	+$1.9K	64% 18-10 (28)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 11.3¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$21.53	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
WH whig	Yesavg 90¢	$900	$890	-$10	59% 423-293 (716)
E4 e46m3CTR	Noavg 4.2¢	$54.69	$643.7	+$589.01	63% 33619-19478 (53097)
CA canupdatelateron	Yesavg 95¢	$294.8	$276.08	-$18.72	65% 573-304 (877)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 12.1¢	$90.96	$83.03	-$7.93	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 17¢	$113.85	$73.6	-$40.26	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR	Noavg 17.8¢	$116.24	$71.85	-$44.39	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Noavg 9.4¢	$55.75	$65.38	+$9.62	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR	Noavg 21.3¢	$196.22	$13.26	+$6.32	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 20.3¢	$75.39	$10.96	-$64.43	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 70¢	$10	$7.14	-$2.86	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 12.7¢	$45.04	$6.44	+$2.03	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Noavg 27.6¢	$46.98	$2.31	-$6	28% 3390-8578 (11968)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Noavg 7.9¢	$0.4	$0.55	+$0.16	36% 6093-11041 (17134)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 3.9¢	$0.58	$0.44	-$0.14	32% 7674-16005 (23679)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$8,524.75

Value

$6.6K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

0xdea2...e981

Yes

Invested

$4,292.17

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

64%

18-10 (28)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$1,033.97

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$21.53

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

whig

Yes

Invested

$900

Value

$890

PnL

-$10

Record

59%

423-293 (716)

e46m3CTR

Invested

$54.69

Value

$643.7

PnL

+$589.01

Record

63%

33619-19478 (53097)

canupdatelateron

Yes

Invested

$294.8

Value

$276.08

PnL

-$18.72

Record

65%

573-304 (877)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$90.96

Value

$83.03

PnL

-$7.93

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$113.85

Value

$73.6

PnL

-$40.26

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR

Invested

$116.24

Value

$71.85

PnL

-$44.39

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Invested

$55.75

Value

$65.38

PnL

+$9.62

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR

Invested

$196.22

Value

$13.26

PnL

+$6.32

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$75.39

Value

$10.96

PnL

-$64.43

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$7.14

PnL

-$2.86

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$45.04

Value

$6.44

PnL

+$2.03

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Invested

$46.98

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$6

Record

28%

3390-8578 (11968)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.16

Record

36%

6093-11041 (17134)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$0.14

Record

32%

7674-16005 (23679)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 89%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.5%

11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$698.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

798.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.