Will FK Transinvest vs. FK Kauno Zalgiris end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 76¢ · $23 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$22.75
$0
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $10 | $10.06 | +$0.07 | 53% 2691-2371 (5062) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 75.9¢ | $7.22 | $7.01 | +$0.04 | 51% 27051-25620 (52671) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $2.39 | $2.44 | +$0.05 | 58% 47475-34259 (81734) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.3¢ | $2.17 | $2.02 | -$0.15 | 50% 21534-21823 (43357) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $1.23 | +$0 | 50% 26383-26006 (52389) |
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$10.06
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
2691-2371 (5062)
Invested
$7.22
Value
$7.01
PnL
+$0.04
Record
51%
27051-25620 (52671)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$2.39
Value
$2.44
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
47475-34259 (81734)
Invested
$2.17
Value
$2.02
PnL
-$0.15
Record
50%
21534-21823 (43357)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1.23
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26383-26006 (52389)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.