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Yes
balthazarCTR<$100Yes
LucerysCTR<$100YesYesYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C or below on November 5?
Resolved No. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$10.64
Smart Money Signal
Yes
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares117
Combined PnL-$10.64
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.64 | — | -$10.64 | 38% 1217-2001 (3218) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 30969-28992 (59961) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 72% 13903-5480 (19383) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 54% 12531-10868 (23399) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 34% 19319-36895 (56214) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 28% 2849-7321 (10170) |
0X
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100Invested
$10.64
Value
—
PnL
-$10.64
Record
38%
1217-2001 (3218)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
30969-28992 (59961)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
72%
13903-5480 (19383)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
12531-10868 (23399)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
19319-36895 (56214)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
2849-7321 (10170)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xde3ac38c...687176
Slug
lowest-temperature-in-hong-kong-on-november-5-2026-20corbelow